A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
